Two highly-anticipated, but very different, albums have dropped as we approach the end of the summer.
Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet (Polydor) arrives following the US star’s singles chart domination this summer. Between them, Espresso and Please Please Please have spent 12 weeks at No.1 in the UK.
Meanwhile, Irish band Fontaines DC have released their fourth album, Romance, which is their first with XL Recordings following a successful run with Partisan.
It sets up an intriguing chart battle between indie rock and pop.
With her huge streaming momentum (including a billion global streams on Spotify alone for Espresso), Carpenter looks like the strongest No.1 contender with Short n’ Sweet. Of its 12 tracks, only the two chart-topping singles dropped ahead of the album release, so fans will be flocking to hear the new music.
However, Fontaines DC will also likely amass a strong opening week’s sale for Romance, which has had rave reviews. In fact, on paper they have a better track record than Carpenter, whose previous album, 2022’s Emails I Can’t Send, recently peaked at No.41 following her singles chart success.
Fontaines DC peaked at No.1 with 2022’s Skinty Fia, which opened with sales of 19,983, including 12,387 vinyl copies, 4,262 CDs, 788 cassettes, 919 downloads and 1,626 from streams. The band might reasonably hope to advance on that following their move to a bigger label and the streaming and airplay success of the singles from Romance, including Top 100 chart entries for Starburster and Favourite.
Photo: Simon Wheatley
For indie retail, the Fontaines DC record is set to be a strong performer following the band’s well received Glastonbury performance. But with the broadening appeal of vinyl, Sabrina Carpenter fans will also seek out her LP in stores.
“We’ll stock both in big numbers and it’s great and exciting to have lots of younger people coming to our store and picking up the Sabrina LP,” said Banquet’s Jon Tolley. “But our shop is built on bands like Fontaines DC. We’ll sell a four-figure number of that quite easily.”
“Ultimately, we welcome anyone who gets into the buzz of buying physical music,” he added.
“It's exciting to have such a big release week,” said Rough Trade MD Lawrence Montgomery. The retailer is also looking ahead to new physical albums from Nick Cave, Jamie xx, Wunderhorse, Ezra Collective, Fat Dog and Sophie all dropping before the end of September.
“We have seen strong pre-order demand on the Fontaines DC release through a mix of activations the band and label have worked on,” said Montgomery. “Across limited variants, release week live shows and 'natural' week one demand, we predict it will be our biggest ever first week ship out.
“Achieving this is a reflection of the great work our teams do and the way we work creatively and collaboratively with the label and artists. We've been huge supporters of Fontaines DC since day one and we're hoping to do our own little bit to contribute to the huge success of this album.”
We predict Fontaines DC will be our biggest ever first week ship out
Lawrence Montgomery
With almost three months on pre-order for the various physical editions, Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet is likely to amass strong physical sales. However, Montgomery suggested a significant amount of this will go through the label’s own e-commerce (D2C) channels.
“We have seen a significant increase in demand for albums from pop singers across our channels over the years – this is great as it represents how far vinyl has gone and the fact that we are welcoming a broader set of customers to our stores,” said Montgomery. “Despite this however, we have not experienced the level of pre-order demand that would expect on this [Sabrina Carpenter] album.”
While the industry has seen strong growth in vinyl, Indie retail often voices concern that it loses out on sales for key titles because of the marketing focus on the artist’s own D2C channels.
“This is an ongoing growing danger for retail and although we understand why labels prioritise it, we firmly believe that campaigns work best when there is a measured approach to marketing and variants between a variety of channels,” said Montgomery.
Sabrina Carpenter recently announced the UK/European leg of her Short n’ Sweet Tour. The O2 show on March 8, 2025 will be only her second ever London headline show.
With her 76 million monthly Spotify listeners, the industry now awaits the streaming impact from Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet, the singer’s sixth studio album. There’s also a strong chance her hit singles could rebound as their chart impact is currently hindered by chart rules. Based on the pure streaming data, Espresso and Please Please Please would still be pushing for the Top 5 – and the album release will likely see at least three of her tracks (the maximum under OCC rules) in the upper end of the chart.
Here, for a DSP perspective, Alexandre Pipieri’s, global pop music editor at Deezer, looks at the impact of Sabrina Carpenter on streaming…
How strong has streaming on Deezer been in the UK and globally for Sabrina Carpenter?
“This summer, Sabrina Carpenter’s hit single Espresso topped charts worldwide, including in the UK. It is without a doubt one of the biggest pop hits of the summer. Streaming for Sabrina Carpenter on Deezer in the UK has been particularly strong as she reached the Top 3 most streamed tracks on the platform.”
What are your expectations for streaming of the album on Deezer on Friday – who would it compare to in terms of superstar artists?
“Given the current momentum and the success of Espresso and Please Please Please, her album is expected to perform well on Deezer, particularly in key markets like the United Kingdom. Sabrina’s success can be compared to that of pop artists such as Ariana Grande and Olivia Rodrigo. While she hasn’t yet reached the absolute pinnacle of global superstars like Taylor Swift or Beyoncé, her success this year could elevate her to the status of global pop star. Her fan base is already strong, supported by her acting career and Disney days.”
Sabrina Carpenter’s success this year could elevate her to the status of global pop star
Alexandre Pipieri
How are you supporting the album campaign in terms of editorial and marketing initiatives?
“We will of course be supporting the release of Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet. She will feature on the cover of several key pop music playlists such as Radar Weekly, which highlights the best releases of the week, and Fresh Pop, which focuses on the best new pop tracks. Her hits Espresso and Please Please Please will also be prominently featured on Deezer. Additionally, we will launch a push notification campaign targeting not only existing fans but also others who might enjoy her music. All these initiatives aim to maximise streams and ensure the album reaches both existing fans and new listeners, further solidifying Sabrina Carpenter’s position as a rising star in pop music.”
Do you expect Sabrina Carpenter to be in contention for a UK No.1 single again with the album release?
“Right now, it is clear that women are dominating the charts, with Billie EIlish, Charli XCX, Chappell Roan, and the return of Lady Gaga taking the spotlight. However we can certainly count on Sabrina Carpenter’s British fanbase to push her to the top of the podium.”
Finally, how will the other big release by Fontaines DC compare - do you expect a chart battle with consumption skewed towards streaming on one side and physical on the other?
“Fontaines DC, a popular band largely in the UK, could dominate physical sales due to their more mature audience, while Sabrina Carpenter will most likely lead in number of streams as she appeals to a younger and more pop-oriented audience. Let the battle begin!”
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