CISAC has published the first ever global study measuring the impact of AI in the music sector.
While music companies and their partners have taken a proactive approach to the responsible use of artificial intelligence in music creation, along with legal action and notifications aimed at generative AI firms, the CISAC report underscores the concerns about the impact of the technology in the years ahead.
In the US, the NO FAKES Act has been supported by the music industry. The legislation has been introduced to hold individuals or companies liable for damages for producing, hosting, or sharing a digital replica of an individual performing in an audiovisual work, image or sound recording.
The new study, which also covers the audiovisual sector, calculates that generative AI will enrich tech companies while substantially jeopardising the income of human creators in the next five years.
It was commissioned by CISAC (International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, representing over five million creators), and conducted by PMP Strategy.
CISAC acknowledges that AI has the power to unlock new opportunities for creators. Their forecast of the financial impact is based on a scenario where the regulatory framework is unchanged.
While the revenues of generative AI providers will see dramatic growth over the next five years, creators risk losing a large share of their current income due to AI’s impact on human-made works.
According to CISAC, music and audiovisual creators will see respectively 24% and 21% of their revenues at risk of loss by 2028. This amounts to a cumulative loss of €22 billion over the five-year period (€10 billion in music, €12 billion in audiovisual).
The study finds that the market for music and AV content generated by AI will increase exponentially in the next five years, growing from around €3 billion now to €64 billion in 2028. It forecasts that future revenues of Gen AI providers will rise to annual revenues of €4 billion in music (up from €0.1 billion in 2023) and €5 billion in audiovisual (up from €0.2 billion) by 2028.
“These are revenues derived directly from the unlicensed reproduction of creators’ works, representing a transfer of economic value from creators to AI companies,” noted CISAC.
In the music sector, the streaming and music library markets will be strongly impacted by AI. By 2028, Gen AI music is projected to account for approximately 20% of traditional music streaming platforms’ revenues, and around 60% of music libraries’ revenues.
It’s critical that we get these regulations right, protect creators’ rights and help develop an AI environment that safeguards human creativity and culture
Björn Ulvaeus
The projected revenue loss will also be substantial for audiovisual creators.
The study concluded: “In an unchanged regulatory framework, creators will actually suffer losses on two fronts: the loss of revenues due to the unauthorised use of their works by Gen AI models without remuneration; and replacement of their traditional revenue streams due to the substitution effect of AI-generated outputs, competing against human-made works.”
CISAC President Björn Ulvaeus has welcomed the study as a guideline to policy makers in legislative debates around the world.
“For creators of all kinds, from songwriters to film directors, screenwriters to film composers, AI has the power to unlock new and exciting opportunities – but we have to accept that, if badly regulated, generative AI also has the power to cause great damage to human creators, to their careers and livelihoods,” he said. “Which of these two scenarios will be the outcome? This will be determined in large part by the choices made by policy makers, in legislative reviews that are going on across the world right now. It’s critical that we get these regulations right, protect creators’ rights and help develop an AI environment that safeguards human creativity and culture”.
CISAC director general Gadi Oron said: “CISAC commissioned this study from PMP Strategy to show the enormous value that copyright works bring to Gen AI companies. Its conclusions point to a fundamental flaw that is opening up in the market, with creators’ works being unfairly and unethically appropriated to boost the revenues of Gen AI providers, while leaving the creators themselves out of this growth.
“There is a critical message here for policy makers: they must act urgently to safeguard human creators, culture and creativity. They must ensure that human creators are protected, can exercise their legal rights and can demand transparency from AI services. With these principles enshrined in the AI environment, this can be a win-win for creators and the tech industry rather than a threat to our culture and creative sector.”
There is a critical message here for policy makers: they must act urgently to safeguard human creators, culture and creativity
Gadi Oron
Dr Tobias Holzmüller, CEO of GEMA (the German Society for Musical Performing and Mechanical Reproduction Rights), said: ”For the global market, the CISAC AI study confirms the findings of the ‘AI and Music’ study we commissioned for Germany and France at the beginning of the year: the global market for AI-generated music and audiovisual content will grow by a factor of 20 over the next five years. The works of authors form the basis for these new business models of AI providers.
"Currently, this rapid development is at the expense of creators – they are not sharing in the enormous revenues. Authors will therefore lose up to 24% of their income in the future. To prevent this, they must receive a fair share of the revenues generated by AI providers. Clever regulation that enables progress and at the same time provides for fair participation is still urgently needed.”
CISAC vice-president, film director and screenwriter Ángeles González-Sinde Reig, said: “This study highlights the need for ethical and economically sound policies that put creators’ rights at the very centre of the AI world. AI tools can profoundly support our work as story tellers and film makers. But there is an enormous anxiety that in the rush to exploit and monetise generative AI, creators will be treated like an afterthought, lacking the right to authorise uses of their work, unprotected by transparency rules and unable to receive fair remuneration. We must not forget that it is human creators who provide the fuel of the AI world and who must be at the centre of policy making and regulation.”
Marcelo Castello Branco, CISAC Board chair and CEG of Brazil’s UBC (Brazilian Union of Composers), said: “Our sector has adapted to whatever new technology comes our way, but with generative AI we find ourselves in uncharted territory as the disruption goes to the very core of the creative process, not just its distribution channels. We stand ready to embrace these changes, but let there be no doubt: our foremost priority is to protect the livelihoods of our member creators. We are committed to ensuring that they can continue their vital work and sharpen their craft without compromise. Together, we will navigate this landscape, safeguarding the rights and opportunities of those who drive real and human innovation and creativity.”
The study combined qualitative and quantitative research, using Gen AI application case studies to identify areas of greatest impact and converting these into economic estimates on the market penetration of Gen AI services and the revenue losses to creators. It also provides estimates of Generative AI tools and services’ revenues that can serve as a basis to calculate remuneration schemes for creators.
The historical figures and forecast assumptions are based on market data, relevant benchmarks and extensive interviews with industry experts, including Collective Management organisations (CMOs), creators, tech players, producers, publishers, DSPs, and more.
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